"Today marks the 20th anniversary of the first (contemporary) Russian invasion of Chechnya. While made by the Yeltsin administration, that decision has had an enormous impact on current Russian identity and now President Vladimir Putin's power. Moreover, this strategy of two decades ago has a familiar ring: promote popular approval during hard times by turning to violence against some undesirable 'other' — Chechen terrorists in 1994 and Ukrainian fascists today. While the first Chechen War ended in a stalemate, the second one had a a heavy toll — estimates in both conflicts total anywhere from 50,000 to 300,000 Chechen civilian deaths and 10,000-50,000 Russian military fatalities. Regardless, this conflict catapulted Putin to the Presidency.
The brutality in Chechnya brought Putin domestic popularity, and his willingness to turn over the fate of the territory to a local despot gave the Chechens the primary responsibility for subduing the land as well as the authority to brutalize domestic opponents. This increased Islamic extremism enhanced terrorist recruitments and led to a spreading of violence throughout the Caucasian region, as the world later learned with the Boston Marathon bombings and through the threat of terrorist attacks during the Sochi Games.
But Putin was willing to take the risk then…and now. In 2011, he again became concerned about his position at home. For the first time, a significant core of Russian citizens protested the lack of accountability and unfair elections. And then came Ukraine’s renewed Orange Revolution, which unseated Russian sympathizers and called for cementing closer ties with the West. In the aftermath of Sochi, Putin took a page out of Yeltsin’s 1994 playbook and provoked a conflict with Ukraine, separating Crimea from that state and sending irregular troops to fight in separatist areas in the east.
The initial political payoff was enormous: 80 percent plus approval rating for Putin at a time when economic problems are mounting. Observers might conclude that this formula — hatched within the Kremlin Wall back in 1994 — continues to be a winning one, and the refrain among many American pundits stresses the strength and confidence of Russia versus our own ineptitude and weakness. These aggressive moves, however, will once again prove to be too costly.
Twenty years hence, the disaster of the Chechen Wars for Russia’s status as a civilized state, is clear. Today, Russia pursues a policy of violence in Ukraine to overcome popular domestic concerns about Putin’s plans to hold power until 2024. On this anniversary, remembering the consequences and the costs of the Chechen Wars should have a sobering effect on Russians and the world as we watch the battle for eastern Ukraine."
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