Murder Rate Linked to Poverty, too Few Social Supports

July 12, 1999

Media Contacts: Dr. Margaret A. Zahn, 919/515-2468, or [email protected]
Pam Smith, News Services, 919/515-3470, or [email protected]

Criminologist Links Murder Rate to Poverty, Too Few Social Supports

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

A major study by a North Carolina State University criminologist links murder rates with the prevailing economic environment. Simply stated: murder rates decline as the economy soars; murder rates climb as the economy sours.

"Poverty is the underlying key to violence," says Dr. Margaret A. Zahn, dean of NC State's College of Humanities and Social Sciences.

Zahn, who is a fellow and immediate past president of the American Society of Criminology, says, "Poverty leads to loss of hope, and fiscal problems strip away neighborhood stability with reductions in police power and social services."

Her study, The Changing Patterns of Homicide and Social Policy in Three American Cities, looks at contributing factors behind homicide statistics in Philadelphia, St. Louis and Phoenix between 1980 and 1994. She'll present her findings July 19 at the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) conference in Washington, D.C. Hers is one of a series of research projects NIJ funded to help bring about a better understanding of homicide trends in U.S.cities. The reports attempt to link homicide rates with specific social, economic and demographic influences in each locale.

Zahn's 14-year study period was marked by escalating homicide rates in urban centers across the nation, with her subject cities accounting for 10,655 murders in that time span - - Philadelphia, 5,885; St. Louis, 2,922; and Phoenix, 1,848.

Zahn set out to determine the correlation between urban neighborhood decline and homicide rates, especially among youthful offenders. Statistically, 77 cities in the United States with populations exceeding 200,000 account for about 20 percent of the nation's population, but 50 percent of all homicides. According to the Centers for Disease Control, homicides by individuals between the ages of 15 and 19 increased 154 percent between 1985 and 1991. Moreover, census figures for 1990 show that 28 percent of the inner-city poor lived in high poverty neighborhoods, that is, where 40 percent live below the poverty threshold.

Along with her analysis of crime and poverty data, Zahn assessed the influence of police, social programs and recreational policies to measure public service supports. "These public services were chosen because they are especially important areas of support for youthful residents of a city," she said.

In Philadelphia and St. Louis, for example, recreation programs for young people were cut to the bone during the 1980s, and there was a general lack of services for young people and teens. Both cities reported significant involvement of teens in crime and violent activities in the early 1990s. Phoenix, on the other hand, increased programs for the young during that time and reported fewer teen-related homicides.

Poverty was the common denominator for the majority of homicides in all three cities, although Phoenix had fewer concentrated high-poverty census tracts. Zahn's study shows homicide rates in each city to be consistently associated with higher levels of poverty, renter- occupied housing, and economic distress (number of female-headed households, unemployment, welfare recipients, and teenage drop -out rates).

Philadelphia and St. Louis were in economic decline during the 1980-1994 period; decreases in manufacturing jobs were prevalent in both. Both cities saw declines in city services, including the number of police officers and parks and recreation services.

In Philadelphia, incidences of drug-related homicides increased in neighborhoods affected by loss of a large number of manufacturing jobs.Crack cocaine entered that city's poorest neighborhoods in the late 1980s, and with it, high- powered guns to control the illegal drug market. "Young people with limited opportunity were ready targets to sell crack," Zahn points out. Similar factors were at work in St. Louis: drugs, guns, reduced number of police and recreational services, continuing loss of jobs in the city, and the resulting loss of hope within people.

In contrast, the lower homicide rate in Phoenix may be indicative of its growing economy, population, and increased support for recreation, city services and police protection during the study's time frame. However, police were challenged to find ways to deal with illegal drug traffic across the boarder from Mexico and with domestic violence.

Another contributing factor behind urban homicide statistics, Zahn says, is the number of neighborhood bars, thought of as magnets for varying forms of antisocial behavior. Her study shows that in all three cities, the total number of bars decreased between 1980 and 1990 along with the number of homicides occurring within bars. However, neighborhoods with more bars had higher homicide rates -- drug, domestic, or argument-related.

Zahn believes that falling homicide rates over the past four years, notably in major metropolitan centers, are consistent with her findings. "The economy is enormously good," she says. "Community policing is increasing; more is being spent on city services such as domestic shelters and youth recreation programs. Cities have moved in with programs that are good for their citizens."

Zahn fears that a blip in the economy could signal across-the-board budget cuts. "Such short -term budget remedies would be more costly in the long run because of the probability of increased crime associated with the absence of community support systems," she cautions.

She recommends a number of strategies to continue to cut into homicide rates in American cities:

Economic approaches: The sound economy as found in Phoenix is associated with lower homicide rates. Therefore, economic policies that create job bases and link them with trained persons may help reduce homicide in cities. The creation of enterprise zones also could be considered.

City Services: City services, including police and parks and recreation, do make a difference in violent crime incidences. Also, more city-sponsored battered women's shelters may contribute to the reduction in domestic homicides.

Changes in Police Department Operations: Coordination between units within the police department, especially narcotics and homicide, are essential; aggressive investigation and prosecution of aggravated assault cases could prevent such cases from escalating into homicides; gun suppression programs should be considered; school resource officers could be reassigned in summers to neighborhoods where gangs are active or those with many adolescents to help reduce summer violence.

Cooperative Partnerships: Partnerships between city agencies, citizen groups and business entities can help reduce homicide and foster prevention strategies. (Major sports leagues could partner with parks and recreation programs to provide money for uniforms, equipment and development of sports teams in poor neighborhoods. Also, citizen groups such as Mothers Against Gangs and Guns can be mobilized to work with the police.)

Code Enforcement to Preserve and Restore Neighborhoods: Cities can adopt ways to deal with trash collection, graffiti removal and intoxication on the street to foster a climate of civility, order and community pride.

Policy Relevant Research: Future research should bring together academic researchers with practitioners and local policy-making officials to develop ways to control crime in American cities.

--smith--